Living with Uncertainty

Science, because its technological results are so impressive, is perceived as dealing in certainties. Force does equal mass times acceleration and F=ma is an obviously useful formula. But really, all we've done is assign a name to a conceptual quantity we invented, namely "force", and then defined it in terms of other, measurable quantities. Even the quantities one thinks of as fundamental, like mass and acceleration, are really just conceptual comparisons against some imaginary object at rest or with zero mass.

Science as reductionism is the search for the fundamental quantities and relationships from which everything else can be measured. But it has been argued that all measurable quantities, from mass and charge, to space-time itself, are emergent properties which science can never adequately predict (see A Different Universe, by Robert Laughlin). The strength of the rational, scientific method, is that it pays close attention to reality and makes educated guesses about causes and effects. Science is a method for dealing with uncertainty, and its theories can be thought of as superstitions which are valid only as long as the results match the prediction. That's the key difference between progressive science, or humanism, and regressive science, or ideology; both are responses to uncertainty, but science (at its best) is driven by uncertainty and science (at its worst) shields us from it.

This, I think, is what John Ralston Saul means when he talks about the power of the uncertainties inherent in humanism and the weakness of the ready answers built into the structure of ideologies. Ideology, whether scientific, religious, economic or political, doesn't have a memory and, as a result, the ideologue is unlikely to modify his or her preconceptions when the predictions don't match the results.

Comments

Anonymous said…
I don't think science is a method for dealing with uncertainty as much as a method for dealing with the unknown. For instance, does tobacco cause cancer? Did Napolean die from lead poisoning? These are unknowns that can be known using the scientific method. But uncertainties such as Is there an afterlife? and Will my husband take care of me if I get Alzheimer's? cannot be resolved using the scientific method (I don't think).
Greg said…
Donald Rumsfeld I think said it best: “As we know, there are known knowns. There are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns. that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don't know we don't know.” That’s not science. That’s reason unhinged. A good scientist knows that all knowledge is just a working set of assumptions; uncertainty keeps him or her alert. For an ideologue, the unknown is just a nut that hasn’t been cracked.
Greg said…
Actually, Claudia, your point is valid. I should have said that science, rather than a method for "dealing with uncertainty", is more accurately described as "a response to uncertainty". What science deals with are unknowns, true, but the knowledge that results from its methods is tentative rather than sacrosanct. To insist that the current models for global warming and its causes, for example, are irrefutable truths just gives ammunition to the equally rational forces who fear the implications. Acknowledging uncertainty shifts the argument from the domain of reason alone, to a more balanced argument that includes ethical considerations. Uncertaintly shifts the argument from passive inevitablility to ethical responibility.
The points Claudia made are interesting. One of the biggest questions in science is to have one equation (no matter how much complex) able to predict EVERYTHING. So, the science must be able to predict even if the store closes tomorrow because of a natural disaster. This is the ultimate goal of the science: remove all the unknowns. Probably, the ultimate goal is to find an answer to the afterlife (if any) and to the origin of the life/universe. But these goals are probably impossible to achieve, at least with the science we have now. Now the science is, in fact, a series of mathematical models which practicaly APPROXIMATE the behavior of an extremely nonlinear reality into a function. For example, the motion of a car with a certain speed and acceleration can be predicted extremely well (providing correct conditions which must be known...and this is another issue too!) with both Newton's model (F = m*a) and Einstein's model (relativity). So, from the "car problem" point of view both models are "exact" because they give right predictions. But when we change "scale" and we study stars and problems with very high speeds, Einstein's model is "more accurate". The question is what if we have another problem which is not predictable with Einstein's model? Then the scientists try to find another way and so on. But probably the search of the "big formula" which removes ALL the uncetainties of the universe, God, the store that closes or not is NOT possible. The reasons, I think, are two:
1) Our intelligence is limited
2) The mathematics itself is INCOMPLETE or CONTRADDICTORY.
This last fact was demonstrated by GODEL and if we do not change methods to approximate the higly nonlinearities of the universe (the mathematics has the above mentioned problems) we will NEVER have success and there will alwyais be somebody that uses the Ideology to explain the unknown and deal with the uncertainty with the risk to move the umankind into a new dark era. We have been walking on the edge of the knife for a while...
Greg said…
That scientific theory advances by reconciling exceptions to current models may inspire the hope that one day the precision of our calculations will be equal to the universe. That a few laws, discovered by Kepler, formalized by Newton and refined by Einstein seem to account for not only the behavior of falling apples and cannon balls, but also of planetary systems, galaxies and virtually the whole of the visible universe might lead us to conclude that one day everything, from snowflakes to intellect itself, will be accounted for by some elegant model, that one day we'll have in our possession a set of mathematical formulas that could, given a precise and complete description of initial states, predict the whole of unfolding history, from the simple collisions and transformations of elementary particles, through the origins and evolution of life, to you and me and even the thought you're thinking at this moment.

We might all be satisfied that this degree of thoroughness and precision is impossible, but I (and perhaps Gödel) would say its inherently impossible, whereas a devout reductionist would say only that it is only practically impossible, that its only the practical impossibility of ever having a truly complete description of initial conditions that prevents us from knowing our fates. And thank God for that; life without uncertainty would be a life without free will, a life without curiosity, without discovery, without creativity.

So what drives us to know if, in removing all unknowns, life loses all meaning? I don’t say this to discourage scientific passion. Quite the opposite. I'm only asking that we reconsider our motivations. How we rationalize science sets it up in opposition to other paths to self-knowledge and understanding. By insisting that the universe can be reduced to a set of equations that potentially remove all uncertainty, science is reduced to ideology and is no better or worse than other ideologies with similar claims. It could just as easily be science as religion that precipitates our fall.

Popular posts from this blog

My Stacy's are Soaking Wet

Jitterbug from Sphere to Concave Octahedron?

The Rhombic Dodecahedron and the Closest Packing of Spheres